Theory of Change

Our Theory of Change maps how OSCAR transforms inputs into measurable global impact, creating a clear pathway from resources and activities to climate resilience outcomes that benefit millions of people worldwide.

OSCAR's Theory of Change

USAID promotes growing alternative staple crops in Kenya

Develop World-Class Tools

Build on ~1 million lines of OS-Climate open source code, piloted with AR and transition practitioners, to develop world-class, user-centric AR and transition planning tools.

Provide Free Access

Offer tools at no cost to under-resourced governments and organizations that support them.

Leverage Open Source Innovation

Achieve rapid, low-cost development with community-based open source development, third-party code contributions, and integration of complementary open source tools.

Power the Open Data Revolution

Make open data and tools widely findable and usable, and enable governments and their research and academic partners to develop localized data to create federated datasets usable in many tools.

Tap the power of AI

Boost our human developers with AI coding; incorporate multiple types of AI in OSCAR tools; develop a Chat-AR agent to help users craft detailed plans and fundable project proposals.

Align with Open Standards

Ensure OSCAR tools are interoperable with other platforms and tools by adhering to common technical and non-technical standards.

Deploy at Scale

Partner with organizations such as the Resilient Cities Network and the United Nations Development Programme that can use OSCAR to support dozens of countries and thousands of sub-national governments.

Bridge between Science and Practice

Rapidly update OSCAR tools with the latest science so that governments’ AR and transition plans, policies, programs, and projects can accurately and effectively address the future climate risks and opportunities they face.

Inputs

Resources and partnerships that enable OSCAR's work

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Funding & Resources

Philanthropic funding, government support, and in-kind contributions from technology partners enable OSCAR's development and operations.

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Strategic Partnerships

Collaborations with UNDP, Resilient Cities Network, technology companies, and academic institutions provide expertise and reach.

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Open Source Code

Over $30M worth of existing OS-Climate code and infrastructure accelerates development and reduces costs by 60-75%.

Activities

What OSCAR does to create change

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Tool Development

Building world-class climate adaptation tools including Chat-AR, physical risk assessment, and data hub capabilities, with transition analysis tools planned for future releases.

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Science-Policy Bridge

Connecting rapidly evolving climate science with A/R practitioners through accessible tools and training programs.

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Capacity Building

Training programs, workshops, and documentation to help users effectively implement climate adaptation strategies.

Outputs

Direct products and services OSCAR delivers

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Open Source Tools

Free, accessible climate adaptation tools including Chat-AR, risk assessment tools, simulation capabilities, and data hub services.

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Trained Users

Government agencies, NGOs, and organizations trained to use OSCAR tools effectively for climate adaptation planning.

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Data & Insights

Climate risk assessments, adaptation strategies, and project proposals generated using OSCAR's tools and methodologies.

Outcomes

Intermediate changes in behavior and practice

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Improved Planning

Governments and organizations develop higher-quality, data-driven climate adaptation plans and policies using OSCAR tools.

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Bankable Projects

Increased number of climate adaptation projects that meet international funding standards and attract investment.

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Enhanced Collaboration

Better coordination between scientific community, policymakers, and practitioners in climate adaptation efforts.

Impact

Long-term global changes and benefits

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Lives Protected

250 million people positively impacted through improved climate adaptation plans and resilience measures.

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Governments Supported

750+ national and subnational governments with improved A/R plans, policies, programs, and projects.

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Investment Mobilized

$11+ billion in additional A/R investment mobilized through improved project proposals and planning.

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Ecosystems Protected

Tens of millions of acres of threatened habitat and biodiversity preserved through better adaptation strategies.